The rationale for withdrawal is no longer political fatigue or alliance friction, but geography, vulnerability, strategic cost, and maritime logic — a recognition that the defense of Korea has again become an expensive deviation from America’s natural strategic posture.
Lowly schmuck academics like yours truly, unfortunate enough to still be in Seoul at summertime are often invited by public officials to standard fare lunchtime sessions of questioning and soul-searching.
As U.S. attention drifts away from East Asia, the unthinkable becomes thinkable. For decades, South Korea has relied on the U.S. alliance not just for security against North Korea, but as a strategic foundation—anchoring its diplomacy, economy, and identity. But what if the United States decides, not under duress but by design, to pull back?
Diplomacy is dead. Where it stood now sits political grift, ego, and Big Mac burger wrappers.
Hugh White’s recent essay in The Quarterly argues that Australia should be preparing now for the departure of the U.S. He notes “it is futile for Australia to frame its defence around U.S. deterrence of China when America itself is not serious about it.” His essay is understandably focused on Australia, but much of what he says applies equally to South Korea. Should South Korea be preparing now for the departure of the U.S.?
As the Trump Administration sends in troops against the wishes of the Governor of California to quell riots and near-daily ICE raids rock American cities, it’s hardly becoming to point out challenges to democracy anywhere else in the world - let alone South Korea.
Attention has turned to the re-emergence of a Cold War-like division in East Asia, with China, North Korea, and Russia on one side and the United States, South Korea, and Japan on the other.
The next South Korean President, or let’s just call it now—Lee Jae-myung, will inherit more than a fractured domestic landscape. They’ll inherit Donald Trump. Lee will be dealing with a man who runs U.S. diplomacy on podcast and social media vibes, Fox News soundbites, and showmanship.
After Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the U.S. (Biden Administration), NATO, and European governments worked tirelessly to rally support from democratic allies around the world.
Washington under Biden, and now under Trump, are placing increased emphasis on “strategic flexibility” - the ability to deploy U.S. forces based in Korea to respond to regional or global contingencies.
